Historic Perspective: Nasser's Heritage
Due to large-scale destruction in Europe during the two world wars, the European empires collapsed. In Egypt, the United Kingdom withdrew its forces in 1922 and its influence was purged by a coup in 1952 led by Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser. The successful coup plotters attempted to predict who would replace the United Kingdom as the dominant power of the Mediterranean. The choices were the United States and the Soviet Union.
The geopolitical core of "Nasserism" — that Egypt is the pivot of the Arab world — comes naturally to an ethnicity that prides itself on being the longest surviving culture in the world. The country has been in the thick of international maneuvering since antiquity and has always been seen as a territory that must be controlled in order to project power into the wider region. Nasser did not argue with the concept of Egypt as a springboard — he simply declared that the springboard should be the starting point rather than an intermediate point.
As the gap between Soviet promises and American reality widened, the continuation of Nasser's policies shifted from somewhat unrealistic to incredibly dangerous. American military domination of the region made Egypt's continued access to global markets dependent upon American largess. The wars with Israel had halted income from the often-mined Suez Canal. And Israel's threat during the 1973 Yom Kippur war to bomb the Aswan High Dam — the destruction of which could well have ended Egypt completely — made the concept of continuing hostilities potentially suicidal.
And so Cairo — first under Anwar Sadat and then under Hosni Mubarak — changed Egypt's alliance structure from one deadly to Egyptian interests to one more rational and reflective of both historical precedent and geopolitical reality. A de facto alliance with the United States granted not only regular commerce, aid and a reopening of the Suez Canal but also guaranteed that the Israelis would not push into — much less past — the Sinai Peninsula.[1]
Egypt Geopolitical Imperatives:
1: Secure the Nile
A strong economic policy around the delta's region is capital for any Egyptian government. The delta's compact shape also allows for some economies of scale in infrastructure development. But perhaps most important, the delta allows for contact with the outside world. Egypt is extremely capital poor, and gaining even indirect access to global capital markets is no small achievement. Extending Egyptian influence downstream to the Mediterranean is absolutely critical. The valley does widen eventually, but by the time it reaches Khartoum, Egypt finds the area impossible to control. There is always the tyranny of distance. Khartoum is fully 1,600 kilometers from Aswan, and 2,600 kilometers from Cairo. The supply chains necessary to occupy these far southern regions are at the extreme upper limit of what Egypt can sustain, and it can do that only when Egypt is powerful and its southern neighbors are weak.
Such a balance of forces in the south is not the situation today. In modern times, Egyptian power stops at the northern shore of Lake Nasser. The creation of the Aswan High Dam flooded the Nile River Valley past the Sudanese border, drowning all connecting infrastructure with it. At present, there are no significant infrastructure links between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt's primary obstacle in securing the Nile upstream is internal. Regardless of era, Egypt has been densely populated, and the sheer length of the Nile's track makes it difficult for a power based in the delta to influence Aswan (and points beyond) and vice versa.
2: Control the Suez Isthmus Completely
Commanding the Suez Isthmus has always been a central element in Egypt's geopolitics. The control of the Britons over the latter was seen a symbol of western domination for many until Nasser decided to nationalize it provoking a war with Great Britain and Israel.
It all started In 1869 when the French completed a north-south route now known famously as the Suez Canal. Transport costs fell so drastically that choosing the Suez route for trade between Europe and Asia shifted from being the logical choice to the only choice. The Silk Road, in decline for centuries due to the increasing popularity of deepwater navigation, died outright. Even in the modern post-Soviet era it shows few meaningful signs of regenerating.
In 2009, Egypt earned approximately $5 billion in canal fees, or about 3 percent of gross domestic product. That may not sound like a large influx of funds, but bear in mind that total Egyptian exports during that time were less than $35 billion, total government revenues were only $51 billion and a lock-free, level-water canal like Suez requires minimal maintenance. The Suez is not the lifeblood of Egypt — that is clearly the Nile — but control over the Suez does let Egypt aspire to something more promising than destitution. If there is anything that Egyptians of all eras will fight for, it is control over this tiny sliver of land and the canal that now cuts through it.[1]
3: Maintain Friendly Relations with the Dominant Sea Power of the Mediterranean
Dispite being a strong land power, Egypt has rarely dominated the Mediterranean. It was rather looking for good relations with sea powers in order to ensure its exportation, it was the case for instance with the British power during the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. But since about fifty years, the relation between Egypt and the Mediterranean has be concentrated around the ambiguous relation with Israel. he state of war between both countries which dated back to the 1948 Arab–Israeli War culminated in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and was followed by the 1979 Egyptian–Israeli Peace Treaty a year after the Camp David Accords, mediated by US president Jimmy Carter. Full diplomatic relations were established on February 26, 1980. Egypt has an embassy in Tel Aviv and a consulate in Eilat. Israel has an embassy in Cairo and a consulate in Alexandria.
Peace between Egypt and Israel has now lasted for more than thirty years and Egypt has become an important strategic partner of Israel. In January 2011, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a former defense minister known for his close ties to Egyptian officials, stated that "Egypt is not only our closest friend in the region, the co-operation between us goes beyond the strategic."[2]
Nevertheless, the relationship is sometimes described as a "cold peace",[3] with many in Egypt skeptical about its effectiveness.[4] The Arab-Israeli conflict kept relations cool and anti-Israeli incitement is prevalent in the Egyptian media.
The two countries are tied by the strong peace treaty mentioned above, during the arab spring the future of the relations was very uncertain notably following the attack of the Israeli embassy by protesters. However, In 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood declared their support for the peace treaty,[5] and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu affirmed he had no problem dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood so long as the peace treaty was respected.[6] Post Mubarak, the Egyptian authorities continued to protect an IDF memorial in the Sinai in keeping with their treaty obligations.[7]
Relations With The Rest of The World
European Union:
Relations between Egypt and the European Union are now mainly based on a partnership relation within the Euro – Mediterranean and Middle East area, which is of vital strategic importance and a key external relations priority for the EU.The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership was launched at the 1995 Barcelona and aimed to tighten the relations between Egypt and its main Mediterranean Partners, namely: Algeria,Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority. Libya currently has observer status at certain meetings. Since the enlargement, in May 2004 and January 2007, the co-operation covers 35 countries, the EU of 27, including Cyprus and Malta and the 10 Mediterranean Partners.
Egypt has also taken an active role regarding Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, such as its participation in the technical meeting of which it was the speaker for the Arab group.
Thanks to its very special position, Egypt has been one of the leading recipients among the Mediterranean partners in terms of total funds received from the MEDA programme, the principal financial instrument of the European Union for the implementation of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. It is focused on policy-led, national structural reform and liberalisation programmes with a sector-wide approach.
This relation is also based on a strong commercial relation as EU is Egypt’s biggest trading partner currently accounting for 42% of Egyptian exports and 37% of imports, with the balance of trade still in the EU's favour. Trade between the EU and Egypt has risen by more than 5% in the last five years to reach around 11.6 billion euro in 2004. Egypt’s main exports to the EU in 2004 were energy (39%), textiles and clothing (15%), agricultural products (9%), and chemicals (5%). Major imports from the EU were power generating machinery (21%), chemicals (16%), transport equipment (16%), and food and agricultural products (10%). Egypt has a serious but improving trade deficit that has put considerable pressure on the Egyptian pound.
United states:
The relations between Egypt and the United States have always been complicated since the 50's, In 1956, the U.S. was alarmed at the closer ties between Egypt and the Soviet Union, and prepared the OMEGA Memorandum as a stick to reduce the regional power of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. It is only thanks to its intervention during the Suez crisis that the United States managed to become an ally of Egypt. Indeed, when Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956, the Suez Crisis erupted with Britain and France threatening war to retake control of the canal and depose Nasser. Israel did invade the Suez in October 1956, and Britain and France (in league with Israel) sent in troops to seize the canal. Using heavy diplomatic and economic pressure, the Eisenhower administration forced Britain and France to withdraw soon, leading to a warming of relations between the U.S. and Egypt.
After the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Egyptian foreign policy began to shift as a result of the change in Egypt's leadership from the fiery Nasser to the much more moderate Anwar Sadat and the emerging peace process between Egypt and Israel.
After a seven-year hiatus, both countries reestablished normal diplomatic relations on February 28, 1974. In moving toward the U.S. in foreign policy, Sadat worked with President Richard Nixon to expel 20,000 Soviet technicians and soldiers and reopen the Suez Canal. Sadat opened negotiations with Israel, resulting most notably in the Camp David Accords brokered by President Jimmy Carter and made peace with Israel in a historic peace treaty in 1979.
Following the peace treaty with Israel, between 1979 and 2003, the U.S. has provided Egypt with about $19 billion in military aid, making Egypt the second largest non-NATO recipient of U.S. military aid after Israel. Also, Egypt received about $30 billion in economic aid within the same time frame. In 2009, the U.S. provided a military assistance of US$1.3 billion (inflation adjusted US$ 1.43 billion in 2016), and an economic assistance of US$250 million (inflation adjusted US$ 275.7 million in 2016).[8]
International Organizations:
Egypt played a key role during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf crisis. President Mubarak helped assemble the international coalition and deployed 35,000 Egyptian troops against Iraq to liberate Kuwait. The Egyptian contingent was one of the largest in the coalition forces, along with the U.S., U.K. and Saudi Arabia.
In the aftermath of the Gulf War, Egypt signed the Damascus Declaration with Syria and the Persian Gulf states to strengthen Persian Gulf security. Egypt continues to contribute regularly to United Nations peacekeeping missions, most recently in East Timor, Sierra Leone, and Liberia.
Egypt is member of ABEDA, ACC, ACCT (associate), AfDB, AFESD, AL, AMF, AU, BSEC (observer), CAEU, CTBT, EBRD, ECA, ESCWA, FAO, G-15, G-19, G-24, G77,IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC, ICRM, IDA, IDB, IFAD, IFC, IFRCS, IHO, ILO, IMF, IMO, Inmarsat, Intelsat, Interpol, IOC, IOM, ISO, ITU, MINURSO, MONUC, NAM, OAPEC,OAS(observer), OAU, OIC, OSCE (partner), PCA, UN, UNAMSIL, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNITAR, UNMIBH, UNMIK, UNMOP, UNOMIG, UNRWA, UNTAET,UPU, WCO, EFTU, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WToO, and WTrO. Egypt is one of only seven U.N. members which is not a member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
Internal Situation After The Revolution:
The Egyptian revolution of 2011, locally known as the January 25 Revolution (Egyptian Arabic: ثورة 25 يناير;Thawret 25 yanāyir),[21] began on 25 January 2011 and took place across all of Egypt. It consisted of demonstrations, marches, occupations of plazas, riots, non-violent civil resistance, acts of civil disobedience and strikes. Millions of protesters from a range of socio-economic and religious backgrounds demanded the overthrow of Egyptian PresidentHosni Mubarak. The revolution included Islamic, liberal, anti-capitalist, nationalist and feminist elements. Violent clashes between security forces and protesters resulted in at least 846 people killed and over 6,000 injured.[22][23]Protesters burned over 90 police stations.[24] The protests took place in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities.
Early 2011 was a dramatic period in modern Egyptian history. The mainstream media's narrative on the Arab Spring portrayed popular uprisings as the driving force that swept away the regime of Hosni Mubarak and opened the door to democracy. But a closer examination indicates that the rules of the past still apply. Concentration of power, physical isolation from the outside world and dependence on outside forces for economic security remain the trifecta that drives Egyptian society and governmental development.
To understand the Arab Spring one must first understand the factors that led to it. This is a discussion that must begin not with the aspirations of those who protested in Tahrir Square but with the strategic imperatives of the military, the true vanguard of the Egyptian state.
Nasser's plan to elevate the military as the vanguard of society worked, but in the years after Nasser's death the military shifted its position. Rather than partnering with the Soviets to create a regional sphere of influence, the military evolved its position in Egyptian society into a system of ossified control. The state still owned nearly everything of worth, but it was managed by and for the benefit of the military leadership. Everything from banks to import/export firms to agricultural operations — already heavily influenced by the military under the system — was consolidated into a series of military oligarchies. Rather than working to elevate Egypt economically, the military oligarchs mostly split the local spoils and lived large.
This was a stable system from the late 1970s until the mid-2000s. Egypt's shielded geography limited the ability of any international economic interest to challenge the military's many personal fiefdoms. Egypt's partnership with the United States mitigated international pressure of all sorts, and in many ways even Egypt's ostracism from the Arab world due to its treaty with Israel allowed Egypt's generals to rule Egypt however they saw fit.
As Mubarak aged, however, an internal challenge to the military oligarchy arose in the form of the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, who wanted to transform Egypt from a military oligarchy into a more traditional Egyptian dynasty. Doing this required the breaking of the military's hold on the economy. Gamal and his allies — often with the express assistance of international institutions like the World Bank — worked to "privatize" Egyptian state assets for themselves. This process was a direct threat to the military's political and economic position at the top of Egyptian society. The military also viewed Gamal, who never completed his military service, as a political neophyte, incapable of understanding the country's strategic imperatives and managing its security apparatus.
The result was Egypt's Arab Spring. In the months leading up to the January demonstrations, Egypt's top generals were delivering very stern ultimatums to the president to abandon any hope of passing power to Gamal while looking at their options to unseat Mubarak via less conventional means. The military strategically positioned itself early on during the demonstrations as the honest broker and guardian of the protesters, taking care to avoid a violent crackdown on the demonstrators while Mubarak's internal security forces were vilified on the streets. Such a light hand was due not to lack of capacity but to lack of need. The demonstrations provided the generals with the means to remove Mubarak, the biggest liability to their own livelihood, while maintaining the military's paramount role.
After the revolution against Mubarak and a period of rule by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the Muslim Brotherhood took power in Egypt through a series of popular elections, with Egyptians electing Islamist Mohamed Morsi to the presidency in June 2012.[9] However, Morsi's government encountered fierce opposition from secularists and members of the military, and mass protests broke out against his rule in June 2013. On 3 July 2013, Morsi was deposed by a coup d'état led by the minister of defense, General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi,[10] who became Egypt's de facto strongman and was eventually elected president himself in a 2014 election.[11]
[1] https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-egypt-eternal-stability-turmoil
[2] Kershner, Isabel (27 January 2011). "Israeli concern for peace partner".Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
[3] "Egypt-Israel 'cold peace' suffers a further chill". BBC News. 10 September 2011.
[4]"Egyptians ponder 30-year peace with Israel". BBC News. 26 March 2009.
[5]Elhanan Miller (29 March 2012). "Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: We acknowledge peace with Israel". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 31 March 2012
[6]Gabe Fisher (24 April 2012). "PM: We'll work with an Islamist president of Egypt so long as peace treaty is respected". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 28 April 2012.
[7] Gabe Fisher (25 April 2012). "Egypt prevents group from defacing Sinai monument to IDF soldiers". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 29 April 2012. Under the terms of the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Egypt is responsible for maintaining the monument. In return, Israel erected and preserves a memorial for fallen Egyptian soldiers in the Negev.
[8] "Scenesetter: President Mubarak's visit to Washington". U.S. Department of State.
[9] "Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi declared president of Egypt". The Guardian. 24 June 2012. Retrieved 9 January 2015.
[10] "Morsi ousted, under house arrest, as crowds celebrate in Cairo". NBC News. 3 July 2013. Retrieved 9 January 2015.
[11]"Sisi elected Egypt president by landslide". Al Jazeera. 30 May 2014. Retrieved9 January 2015.
Due to large-scale destruction in Europe during the two world wars, the European empires collapsed. In Egypt, the United Kingdom withdrew its forces in 1922 and its influence was purged by a coup in 1952 led by Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser. The successful coup plotters attempted to predict who would replace the United Kingdom as the dominant power of the Mediterranean. The choices were the United States and the Soviet Union.
The geopolitical core of "Nasserism" — that Egypt is the pivot of the Arab world — comes naturally to an ethnicity that prides itself on being the longest surviving culture in the world. The country has been in the thick of international maneuvering since antiquity and has always been seen as a territory that must be controlled in order to project power into the wider region. Nasser did not argue with the concept of Egypt as a springboard — he simply declared that the springboard should be the starting point rather than an intermediate point.
As the gap between Soviet promises and American reality widened, the continuation of Nasser's policies shifted from somewhat unrealistic to incredibly dangerous. American military domination of the region made Egypt's continued access to global markets dependent upon American largess. The wars with Israel had halted income from the often-mined Suez Canal. And Israel's threat during the 1973 Yom Kippur war to bomb the Aswan High Dam — the destruction of which could well have ended Egypt completely — made the concept of continuing hostilities potentially suicidal.
And so Cairo — first under Anwar Sadat and then under Hosni Mubarak — changed Egypt's alliance structure from one deadly to Egyptian interests to one more rational and reflective of both historical precedent and geopolitical reality. A de facto alliance with the United States granted not only regular commerce, aid and a reopening of the Suez Canal but also guaranteed that the Israelis would not push into — much less past — the Sinai Peninsula.[1]
Egypt Geopolitical Imperatives:
1: Secure the Nile
A strong economic policy around the delta's region is capital for any Egyptian government. The delta's compact shape also allows for some economies of scale in infrastructure development. But perhaps most important, the delta allows for contact with the outside world. Egypt is extremely capital poor, and gaining even indirect access to global capital markets is no small achievement. Extending Egyptian influence downstream to the Mediterranean is absolutely critical. The valley does widen eventually, but by the time it reaches Khartoum, Egypt finds the area impossible to control. There is always the tyranny of distance. Khartoum is fully 1,600 kilometers from Aswan, and 2,600 kilometers from Cairo. The supply chains necessary to occupy these far southern regions are at the extreme upper limit of what Egypt can sustain, and it can do that only when Egypt is powerful and its southern neighbors are weak.
Such a balance of forces in the south is not the situation today. In modern times, Egyptian power stops at the northern shore of Lake Nasser. The creation of the Aswan High Dam flooded the Nile River Valley past the Sudanese border, drowning all connecting infrastructure with it. At present, there are no significant infrastructure links between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt's primary obstacle in securing the Nile upstream is internal. Regardless of era, Egypt has been densely populated, and the sheer length of the Nile's track makes it difficult for a power based in the delta to influence Aswan (and points beyond) and vice versa.
2: Control the Suez Isthmus Completely
Commanding the Suez Isthmus has always been a central element in Egypt's geopolitics. The control of the Britons over the latter was seen a symbol of western domination for many until Nasser decided to nationalize it provoking a war with Great Britain and Israel.
It all started In 1869 when the French completed a north-south route now known famously as the Suez Canal. Transport costs fell so drastically that choosing the Suez route for trade between Europe and Asia shifted from being the logical choice to the only choice. The Silk Road, in decline for centuries due to the increasing popularity of deepwater navigation, died outright. Even in the modern post-Soviet era it shows few meaningful signs of regenerating.
In 2009, Egypt earned approximately $5 billion in canal fees, or about 3 percent of gross domestic product. That may not sound like a large influx of funds, but bear in mind that total Egyptian exports during that time were less than $35 billion, total government revenues were only $51 billion and a lock-free, level-water canal like Suez requires minimal maintenance. The Suez is not the lifeblood of Egypt — that is clearly the Nile — but control over the Suez does let Egypt aspire to something more promising than destitution. If there is anything that Egyptians of all eras will fight for, it is control over this tiny sliver of land and the canal that now cuts through it.[1]
3: Maintain Friendly Relations with the Dominant Sea Power of the Mediterranean
Dispite being a strong land power, Egypt has rarely dominated the Mediterranean. It was rather looking for good relations with sea powers in order to ensure its exportation, it was the case for instance with the British power during the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. But since about fifty years, the relation between Egypt and the Mediterranean has be concentrated around the ambiguous relation with Israel. he state of war between both countries which dated back to the 1948 Arab–Israeli War culminated in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and was followed by the 1979 Egyptian–Israeli Peace Treaty a year after the Camp David Accords, mediated by US president Jimmy Carter. Full diplomatic relations were established on February 26, 1980. Egypt has an embassy in Tel Aviv and a consulate in Eilat. Israel has an embassy in Cairo and a consulate in Alexandria.
Peace between Egypt and Israel has now lasted for more than thirty years and Egypt has become an important strategic partner of Israel. In January 2011, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a former defense minister known for his close ties to Egyptian officials, stated that "Egypt is not only our closest friend in the region, the co-operation between us goes beyond the strategic."[2]
Nevertheless, the relationship is sometimes described as a "cold peace",[3] with many in Egypt skeptical about its effectiveness.[4] The Arab-Israeli conflict kept relations cool and anti-Israeli incitement is prevalent in the Egyptian media.
The two countries are tied by the strong peace treaty mentioned above, during the arab spring the future of the relations was very uncertain notably following the attack of the Israeli embassy by protesters. However, In 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood declared their support for the peace treaty,[5] and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu affirmed he had no problem dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood so long as the peace treaty was respected.[6] Post Mubarak, the Egyptian authorities continued to protect an IDF memorial in the Sinai in keeping with their treaty obligations.[7]
Relations With The Rest of The World
European Union:
Relations between Egypt and the European Union are now mainly based on a partnership relation within the Euro – Mediterranean and Middle East area, which is of vital strategic importance and a key external relations priority for the EU.The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership was launched at the 1995 Barcelona and aimed to tighten the relations between Egypt and its main Mediterranean Partners, namely: Algeria,Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority. Libya currently has observer status at certain meetings. Since the enlargement, in May 2004 and January 2007, the co-operation covers 35 countries, the EU of 27, including Cyprus and Malta and the 10 Mediterranean Partners.
Egypt has also taken an active role regarding Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, such as its participation in the technical meeting of which it was the speaker for the Arab group.
Thanks to its very special position, Egypt has been one of the leading recipients among the Mediterranean partners in terms of total funds received from the MEDA programme, the principal financial instrument of the European Union for the implementation of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. It is focused on policy-led, national structural reform and liberalisation programmes with a sector-wide approach.
This relation is also based on a strong commercial relation as EU is Egypt’s biggest trading partner currently accounting for 42% of Egyptian exports and 37% of imports, with the balance of trade still in the EU's favour. Trade between the EU and Egypt has risen by more than 5% in the last five years to reach around 11.6 billion euro in 2004. Egypt’s main exports to the EU in 2004 were energy (39%), textiles and clothing (15%), agricultural products (9%), and chemicals (5%). Major imports from the EU were power generating machinery (21%), chemicals (16%), transport equipment (16%), and food and agricultural products (10%). Egypt has a serious but improving trade deficit that has put considerable pressure on the Egyptian pound.
United states:
The relations between Egypt and the United States have always been complicated since the 50's, In 1956, the U.S. was alarmed at the closer ties between Egypt and the Soviet Union, and prepared the OMEGA Memorandum as a stick to reduce the regional power of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. It is only thanks to its intervention during the Suez crisis that the United States managed to become an ally of Egypt. Indeed, when Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956, the Suez Crisis erupted with Britain and France threatening war to retake control of the canal and depose Nasser. Israel did invade the Suez in October 1956, and Britain and France (in league with Israel) sent in troops to seize the canal. Using heavy diplomatic and economic pressure, the Eisenhower administration forced Britain and France to withdraw soon, leading to a warming of relations between the U.S. and Egypt.
After the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Egyptian foreign policy began to shift as a result of the change in Egypt's leadership from the fiery Nasser to the much more moderate Anwar Sadat and the emerging peace process between Egypt and Israel.
After a seven-year hiatus, both countries reestablished normal diplomatic relations on February 28, 1974. In moving toward the U.S. in foreign policy, Sadat worked with President Richard Nixon to expel 20,000 Soviet technicians and soldiers and reopen the Suez Canal. Sadat opened negotiations with Israel, resulting most notably in the Camp David Accords brokered by President Jimmy Carter and made peace with Israel in a historic peace treaty in 1979.
Following the peace treaty with Israel, between 1979 and 2003, the U.S. has provided Egypt with about $19 billion in military aid, making Egypt the second largest non-NATO recipient of U.S. military aid after Israel. Also, Egypt received about $30 billion in economic aid within the same time frame. In 2009, the U.S. provided a military assistance of US$1.3 billion (inflation adjusted US$ 1.43 billion in 2016), and an economic assistance of US$250 million (inflation adjusted US$ 275.7 million in 2016).[8]
International Organizations:
Egypt played a key role during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf crisis. President Mubarak helped assemble the international coalition and deployed 35,000 Egyptian troops against Iraq to liberate Kuwait. The Egyptian contingent was one of the largest in the coalition forces, along with the U.S., U.K. and Saudi Arabia.
In the aftermath of the Gulf War, Egypt signed the Damascus Declaration with Syria and the Persian Gulf states to strengthen Persian Gulf security. Egypt continues to contribute regularly to United Nations peacekeeping missions, most recently in East Timor, Sierra Leone, and Liberia.
Egypt is member of ABEDA, ACC, ACCT (associate), AfDB, AFESD, AL, AMF, AU, BSEC (observer), CAEU, CTBT, EBRD, ECA, ESCWA, FAO, G-15, G-19, G-24, G77,IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC, ICRM, IDA, IDB, IFAD, IFC, IFRCS, IHO, ILO, IMF, IMO, Inmarsat, Intelsat, Interpol, IOC, IOM, ISO, ITU, MINURSO, MONUC, NAM, OAPEC,OAS(observer), OAU, OIC, OSCE (partner), PCA, UN, UNAMSIL, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNITAR, UNMIBH, UNMIK, UNMOP, UNOMIG, UNRWA, UNTAET,UPU, WCO, EFTU, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WToO, and WTrO. Egypt is one of only seven U.N. members which is not a member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
Internal Situation After The Revolution:
The Egyptian revolution of 2011, locally known as the January 25 Revolution (Egyptian Arabic: ثورة 25 يناير;Thawret 25 yanāyir),[21] began on 25 January 2011 and took place across all of Egypt. It consisted of demonstrations, marches, occupations of plazas, riots, non-violent civil resistance, acts of civil disobedience and strikes. Millions of protesters from a range of socio-economic and religious backgrounds demanded the overthrow of Egyptian PresidentHosni Mubarak. The revolution included Islamic, liberal, anti-capitalist, nationalist and feminist elements. Violent clashes between security forces and protesters resulted in at least 846 people killed and over 6,000 injured.[22][23]Protesters burned over 90 police stations.[24] The protests took place in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities.
Early 2011 was a dramatic period in modern Egyptian history. The mainstream media's narrative on the Arab Spring portrayed popular uprisings as the driving force that swept away the regime of Hosni Mubarak and opened the door to democracy. But a closer examination indicates that the rules of the past still apply. Concentration of power, physical isolation from the outside world and dependence on outside forces for economic security remain the trifecta that drives Egyptian society and governmental development.
To understand the Arab Spring one must first understand the factors that led to it. This is a discussion that must begin not with the aspirations of those who protested in Tahrir Square but with the strategic imperatives of the military, the true vanguard of the Egyptian state.
Nasser's plan to elevate the military as the vanguard of society worked, but in the years after Nasser's death the military shifted its position. Rather than partnering with the Soviets to create a regional sphere of influence, the military evolved its position in Egyptian society into a system of ossified control. The state still owned nearly everything of worth, but it was managed by and for the benefit of the military leadership. Everything from banks to import/export firms to agricultural operations — already heavily influenced by the military under the system — was consolidated into a series of military oligarchies. Rather than working to elevate Egypt economically, the military oligarchs mostly split the local spoils and lived large.
This was a stable system from the late 1970s until the mid-2000s. Egypt's shielded geography limited the ability of any international economic interest to challenge the military's many personal fiefdoms. Egypt's partnership with the United States mitigated international pressure of all sorts, and in many ways even Egypt's ostracism from the Arab world due to its treaty with Israel allowed Egypt's generals to rule Egypt however they saw fit.
As Mubarak aged, however, an internal challenge to the military oligarchy arose in the form of the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, who wanted to transform Egypt from a military oligarchy into a more traditional Egyptian dynasty. Doing this required the breaking of the military's hold on the economy. Gamal and his allies — often with the express assistance of international institutions like the World Bank — worked to "privatize" Egyptian state assets for themselves. This process was a direct threat to the military's political and economic position at the top of Egyptian society. The military also viewed Gamal, who never completed his military service, as a political neophyte, incapable of understanding the country's strategic imperatives and managing its security apparatus.
The result was Egypt's Arab Spring. In the months leading up to the January demonstrations, Egypt's top generals were delivering very stern ultimatums to the president to abandon any hope of passing power to Gamal while looking at their options to unseat Mubarak via less conventional means. The military strategically positioned itself early on during the demonstrations as the honest broker and guardian of the protesters, taking care to avoid a violent crackdown on the demonstrators while Mubarak's internal security forces were vilified on the streets. Such a light hand was due not to lack of capacity but to lack of need. The demonstrations provided the generals with the means to remove Mubarak, the biggest liability to their own livelihood, while maintaining the military's paramount role.
After the revolution against Mubarak and a period of rule by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the Muslim Brotherhood took power in Egypt through a series of popular elections, with Egyptians electing Islamist Mohamed Morsi to the presidency in June 2012.[9] However, Morsi's government encountered fierce opposition from secularists and members of the military, and mass protests broke out against his rule in June 2013. On 3 July 2013, Morsi was deposed by a coup d'état led by the minister of defense, General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi,[10] who became Egypt's de facto strongman and was eventually elected president himself in a 2014 election.[11]
[1] https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-egypt-eternal-stability-turmoil
[2] Kershner, Isabel (27 January 2011). "Israeli concern for peace partner".Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
[3] "Egypt-Israel 'cold peace' suffers a further chill". BBC News. 10 September 2011.
[4]"Egyptians ponder 30-year peace with Israel". BBC News. 26 March 2009.
[5]Elhanan Miller (29 March 2012). "Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: We acknowledge peace with Israel". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 31 March 2012
[6]Gabe Fisher (24 April 2012). "PM: We'll work with an Islamist president of Egypt so long as peace treaty is respected". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 28 April 2012.
[7] Gabe Fisher (25 April 2012). "Egypt prevents group from defacing Sinai monument to IDF soldiers". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 29 April 2012. Under the terms of the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Egypt is responsible for maintaining the monument. In return, Israel erected and preserves a memorial for fallen Egyptian soldiers in the Negev.
[8] "Scenesetter: President Mubarak's visit to Washington". U.S. Department of State.
[9] "Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi declared president of Egypt". The Guardian. 24 June 2012. Retrieved 9 January 2015.
[10] "Morsi ousted, under house arrest, as crowds celebrate in Cairo". NBC News. 3 July 2013. Retrieved 9 January 2015.
[11]"Sisi elected Egypt president by landslide". Al Jazeera. 30 May 2014. Retrieved9 January 2015.
Source: Financial Time, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood may rise again, history suggests, December 2013